利率、汇率调整对房地产价格的影响—经济工作.doc

利率、汇率调整对房地产价格的影响 — 经济工作 摘要 :本文首先构建了适合我国国情的房地产价格与利率 ､汇率关系模型 ,然后利用该模型对我国 12 个城市房地产价格与利率 ､汇率的关系进行实证研究 ｡研究结果显示 ,利率与房地产价格呈负向关系 ;汇率与房地产价格之间具有相同的变化趋势 ,与理论分析有较大差异 ,表明我国金融制度仍存在缺陷 ,逐步完善金融市场才能更好地发挥利率和汇率调节经济的功能 ｡因此 ,我们认为房地产价格保持相对稳定是房地产业安全运行的关键 ,在完善的金融制度下正确的利率和汇率政策能在此方面发挥重要作用 ｡ 关键词 :房地产价格 ;利率 ;汇率 Abstract:This paper firstly presents a model showing the relations among real estate price, interest rate and exchange rate. Then it conducts an empirical study of the relations among real estate price, interest rate and exchange rate in twelve cities in China by introducing the model. The results show that there exist negative correlation between interest rate and real estate price, and positive correlation between exchange rate and real estate price. These relations conflict with theory. The findings tell us that the gradual improvement of financial market contributes to interest rate and exchange rate regulating economy since there are defects in China’ s financial institution. Therefore, we believe th